U.S. Senate elections, 2008
All you want to know about U.S. Senate elections, 2008
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This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election in the United States. Content may change as the election approaches. |
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| United States Senate elections, 2008 Class II (33 of the 100) seats to the United States Senate and two mid-term vacancies from Class I |
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| November 4, 2008 | ||||
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| Leader | Harry Reid | Mitch McConnell | ||
| Party | Democratic | Republican | ||
| Leader's seat | Nevada | Kentucky | ||
| Last election | 49 seats (+ 2 Independents) | 49 seats | ||
 Senate Seats up for election: |
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Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4, 2008, with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Thirty-three seats are regular elections; the winners will be eligible to serve six-year terms from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2015 as members of Senate Class II. There are also two special elections: one in Wyoming and another in Mississippi; the winners will serve the remainder of terms that expire on January 3, 2013, as members of Senate Class I.
The 2008 presidential election, many gubernatorial elections, and elections for all House of Representatives seats will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.
The current composition of the Senate, going into the 2008 election, consists of 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who both caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 23 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.
Hill committees’ role
Each major party has Hill committees that work to support its candidates for the House and Senate, chiefly by providing funds. On the Senate side, the committees are the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).
In this cycle the DSCC has been more successful at fundraising. As of June 30, 2008, data from the Federal Election Commission showed the NRSC with $24.6 million on hand, as compared with the DSCC's $43 million.[1] The NRSC chair, Senator John Ensign, took the unusual step of chastising the Republican Senators who, like him, are not facing re-election, and who he thought should have done more to help raise money for their colleagues.[1]
Predictions
Democrats possess a field advantage in 2008, needing to defend only 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 23. In addition, five Republicans, but no Democrats, have announced that they are retiring. The open seat gap between the parties is the biggest in 50 years.[2][3]
Political pundits often use statewide results of recent presidential elections for comparison with subsequent Senate elections. Six of the 12 Democrats are from states won by George W. Bush in the 2004 election (Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia) while four of the 23 Republicans are from states won by John Kerry (Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon).
Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" – This race is not expected to become competitive.
"Likely" – This race is currently not competitive, but it may become competitive if new political factors intervene.
"Leans" – This race is competitive, but one candidate has a clear advantage.
"Tossup" – Neither candidate has a clear advantage.
Races where one party is considered "Safe" by all sources are not included in the table. Currently these include:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC:
Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia
SAFE REPUBLICAN:
Alabama, Idaho, Mississippi, South Carolina, Wyoming, and Wyoming*
Also not included in the table are the 39 Democratic and 26 Republican seats not up for election this year.
Blue seats are currently held by Democrats.
Red seats are currently held by Republicans.
An asterisk (*) denotes a special election.
Beneath each source is the date of the most recent ratings change.
| Source | Safe Democratic | Likely Democratic | Leans Democratic | Tossup | Leans Republican | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| The Cook Political Report (updates) as of October 9, 2008 |
New Jersey | South Dakota Virginia |
Alaska Louisiana New Mexico |
Colorado Minnesota Mississippi* New Hampshire North Carolina Oregon |
Georgia Kentucky Maine |
Nebraska Oklahoma |
Kansas Tennessee Texas |
| CQ Politics (updates) as of October 10, 2008 |
South Dakota Virginia |
New Jersey New Mexico |
Alaska Colorado Louisiana New Hampshire |
Minnesota Mississippi* North Carolina |
Georgia Kentucky Maine Oregon |
Kansas Nebraska Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
|
| The Rothenberg Political Report (updates) as of September 29, 2008 |
New Jersey South Dakota |
New Mexico Virginia |
Alaska Colorado Louisiana New Hampshire Oregon |
North Carolina | Kentucky Minnesota Mississippi* |
Maine | Georgia Kansas Nebraska Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
| Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (updates) as of October 2, 2008 |
New Jersey South Dakota Virginia |
New Mexico | Alaska Colorado Louisiana New Hampshire |
North Carolina Oregon |
Kentucky Maine Minnesota Mississippi* |
(none) | Georgia Kansas Nebraska Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
Races
Retirements
Five senators, all Republicans, — Wayne Allard (CO), John Warner (VA), Chuck Hagel (NE), Larry Craig (ID), and Pete Domenici (NM) — have announced their retirements.
Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado
On January 15, 2007, incumbent Senator Wayne Allard (R) announced he would not seek re-election, honoring his pledge to serve no more than two terms.[4]
Former Representative Bob Schaffer of Fort Collins is the Republican nominee. Former Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway was rumored to be considering a run, but declined to do so.[5] Other possible Republican candidates included former Congressman Scott McInnis and Colorado Attorney General John Suthers.
The Democratic nominee is 2nd district Congressman Mark Udall of Boulder who announced on January 15, 2007, that he will seek the seat and did not draw significant primary opposition.[6]
Bob Kinsey of Denver is the Green Party nominee.[7]
The American Constitution Party's nominee is Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell of Arvada.[8]
Independent candidate Buddy Moore is running for the office unaffiliated any party (Wheat Ridge, Colorado)[9]
Larry Craig (R) of Idaho
On September 1, 2007, Senator Larry Craig announced his intent to resign from the Senate effective September 30, 2007.[10] The announcement followed by just six days the disclosure that he had pleaded guilty on August 1, 2007 to a reduced misdemeanor charge arising out of his arrest on June 11 at the Minneapolis airport for soliciting sex with a man in the restroom. Craig found almost no support among Republicans in his home state or Washington. On October 4, 2007, Senator Craig announced he will not seek re-election, but would remain in office until the end of his term.[11]
Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch is the Republican candidate, and former congressman army veteran Larry LaRocco is the Democratic candidate.[12] Risch and LaRocco ran against each other in the 2006 Lieutenant Governor race, which Risch won by a wide margin. The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Risch leading LaRocco by a 58% to 30% margin [4]. Libertarian Kent Marmon is also running.[13]
The last Democratic Senator from Idaho was Frank Church, who was defeated in the Republican landslide of 1980 after serving four terms.
Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska
In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel chose to retire rather than run for a third term.
Former Governor Mike Johanns, who recently resigned as Agriculture Secretary, is the Republican nominee, having defeated opponent Pat Flynn 87-13 in the primary.
Scott Kleeb, 2006 candidate for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, defeated businessman Tony Raimondo, a former Republican, by a wide margin in the Democratic primary.
Nebraska state Green Party Co-Chairman Steve Larrick is also a candidate.[14]
The Nebraska Party is fielding Kelly Rosberg as its candidate.
Pete Domenici (R) of New Mexico
While Senator Pete Domenici had declared that he would seek re-election in New Mexico, he changed his mind and announced on October 4, 2007 that he was retiring at the end of his current term due to a degenerative brain disorder.[15] Domenici normally would have been expected to win re-election easily, having won his current term with the support of two out of three New Mexico voters; however, he is to be investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee for his role in firing U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. Domenici's role in the developing scandal had reduced the probability he would have been re-elected, and a SurveyUSA poll showed his approval ratings at 41%, with 54% disapproving.[16] The potential scandal may have also contributed to his decision to leave the Senate.
Rep. Tom Udall is the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee is Rep. Steve Pearce, who represents the more conservative southern part of the state.
When asked whether the Republicans were abandoning their hopes of holding onto Domenici's seat, Senator John Ensign, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, responded that "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.”[17]
John Warner (R) of Virginia
John Warner announced on August 31, 2007 that he would not seek re-election for another term.[18] Former Governor Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the 2008 presidential election, is the Republican nominee for the seat.[19] Popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner (no relation) is the Democratic nominee for the race.[20] Polling shows him as a strong favorite to win the seat.[21]
When asked whether the Republicans were abandoning their hopes of holding onto Warner's seat, Senator John Ensign, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, responded that "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.”[17]
Democratic incumbent races
Mark Pryor of Arkansas
Despite being a first-term senator in a state George W. Bush won twice, Democrat Mark Pryor will face no opposition from Republicans in his re-election bid. Although Bush carried the state twice, Arkansas Democrats swept the seven state races held in the 2006 general election. Pryor is the son of longtime U.S. Senator and former Arkansas Governor David Pryor. It was rumored that Lt. Governor Bill Halter would challenge Pryor in the primary, but Halter declined to file as a candidate.[22] Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party is Pryor's only opposition.
Joe Biden of Delaware
On August 23, 2008, the Democratic nominee for President, Barack Obama, announced that Biden would be joining him on the ticket as the Vice Presidential nominee.[23] Delaware law allows Biden to run for Vice President and Senator at the same time, so he would keep the seat should the ticket lose. If Biden is elected Vice President, the Governor of Delaware would appoint a replacement until a special election can take place. Depending on the date of Biden's resignation from the Senate, his successor would be appointed by either the current governor (Democrat Ruth Ann Minner) or her own (likely Democratic) successor. Biden's Republican opponent in the Senate race, conservative political commentator Christine O'Donnell, is trying to make an issue of Biden's dual campaigns, claiming that serving his constituents is not important to him.
Dick Durbin of Illinois
Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin remains favored in Illinois. He seeks to be re-elected in a state that has steadily become more Democratic since 1992. CQpolitics.com rates the contest as "safe Democrat."
Physician Steve Sauerberg of La Grange won the February 5 Republican primary.[24] Kathy Cummings, a retired special education teacher was nominated via convention by the Green Party.[25] Chad Koppie, a retired airline pilot and vice-chairman of the Illinois Center Right Coalition, is the nominee of the Constitution Party.
Tom Harkin of Iowa
Senator Tom Harkin has announced he will seek re-election.[26]
Harkin received 54% of the vote in 2002 against former Republican Congressman Greg Ganske. In 2006, the Democrats gained two of Iowa's U.S. House seats and won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature as well as retaining the Iowa Governor's mansion. A March poll found that 53% of Iowa citizens approve of Harkin while 41% disapprove.
The Republican nominee is small businessman Christopher Reed.
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
Incumbent Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount and was narrowly re-elected in 2002 in a runoff election. Since those elections, Democrats have had to endure the loss of some reliable voters because Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans, although the vast majority still live within Louisiana. The state has become more Republican over the past 12 years. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican senator since Reconstruction. And Louisianans elected Republican Bobby Jindal as the first Indian-American Governor in the country's history in 2007. Louisiana's electoral votes easily went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
On August 27, 2007, state Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced he was switching parties from Democrat to Republican. On November 29, after being personally recruited by Vitter and former Bush administration official Karl Rove, Kennedy announced plans to challenge Landrieu in 2008.[27][28] An August 19 poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Landrieu leading Kennedy by a 53% to 37% margin.[29]
John Kerry of Massachusetts
Incumbent John Kerry is seeking another Senate term in Massachusetts.[30] A December 23, 2007, poll has his approval rating at 52%, with 43% disapproving.[31]
Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi, known for his public criticism of Kerry, had stated that he would run for the seat in 2008 but later changed his mind. Jim Ogonowski, a retired Air Force pilot who was closely defeated by now-Representative Niki Tsongas in a 2007 special election, was running against Kerry.[32] but failed to obtain the required candidacy signatures.
The Republican challenger is Jeff Beatty, an ex-Army Delta Force officer who garnered 30% of the vote in a challenge to Democratic Congressman Bill Delahunt in 2006.
Kerry was challenged by defense attorney Edward O'Reilly for the Democratic nomination, winning 69 percent of the vote to O'Reilly's 31 percent.
A September 25 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Kerry leading Beatty 65%-30%.[33]
Carl Levin of Michigan
Senator Carl Levin has announced he will seek a sixth term in Michigan.[34]
With the Democratic Party takeover of Capitol Hill in the 2006 midterm elections, Levin has become one of the most powerful people in Washington as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. He is expected to easily win re-election. Republican State Representative Jack Hoogendyk and Libertarian professor Scotty Boman are challenging Levin.[35] Mike Nikitin is also running as a candidate from the US Taxpayers Party / Constitution Party.
Max Baucus of Montana
Senator Max Baucus is a popular Democrat in Montana, representing a state that has long been fairly Republican but also is receptive to Democrats in state and local elections. President Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Montana also has a popular Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and a newly elected Democratic junior senator, Jon Tester. Baucus is not expected to face a significant challenge from the 85 year old Republican nominee, Bob Kelleher, who surprised observers by winning the June 3 Republican primary despite supporting a number of positions that put him to the political left of Baucus, such as nationalization of the American oil and gas industry.[36]
Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey
Senator Frank Lautenberg has indicated that he will seek re-election in 2008 at the age of 84. In the Primary, Lautenberg soundly defeated Representative Rob Andrews (NJ-1) by a margin of 62% to 32%. In November 2006, the senator had the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% approving and 45% disapproving),[37] with his approval standing only at 42% as of September 2007 with voters saying he does not deserve re-election 46%-36%.[38]
The Republican nominee is former Congressman and 1996 senatorial candidate Dick Zimmer.
A June 2008 Rasmussen Reports poll found that this race may be one to watch. 45 percent of New Jersey voters say they plan on voting for Lautenberg, with 44 percent saying they plan to vote for Zimmer.[39] However, subsequent polls suggest the margin may be wider.
Sara Lobman of the Socialist Workers Party and Independent Anthony Fisher are also declared candidates.[40][41]
Jack Reed of Rhode Island
In Rhode Island, Democratic Senator Jack Reed had an approval rating of 66% in November 2006.[42] National Journal has declared that "Reed is probably the safest incumbent of the 2008 cycle". Reed's opponent is Bob Tingle, a pit boss at the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Connecticut.[43] A July 7 Rasmussen poll had Reed leading Tingle 72% to 20%.[44]
Tim Johnson of South Dakota
In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson's seat was considered a top GOP target in 2008, considering Johnson's narrow 524-vote victory in 2002 over then-Representative and current U.S. Senator John Thune, as well as his recent health problems. Johnson underwent surgery in December 2006 for a Cerebral arteriovenous malformation and was discharged from the hospital on April 30, 2007. On October 19, 2007, Johnson formally announced that he is seeking re-election.[45] According to a November 2006 SurveyUSA poll, Johnson has an approval rating of 70%, with just 26% disapproving of his performance,[46] making him an early favorite despite the state's Republican leaning.
Republicans were unsuccessful in persuading Governor Mike Rounds and former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby to run. State Representative Joel Dykstra announced his candidacy on July 5, 2007. Other Republicans included Charles Lyonel Gonyo and Sam Kephart. Dykstra won the Republican primary on June 3, 2008 and will face Johnson in November.[47]
A July 15, 2008 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Johnson leading Dykstra by 22 points, 60%-38%.[48]
Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
Senator Jay Rockefeller, great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, will seek a fifth term in West Virginia. Even though West Virginia is a historically Democratic state, in which the party had a 50-32% edge in party affiliation over the Republicans in the 2004 elections, the state party is more conservative than the national party, giving its votes to President George W. Bush in that election and in 2000.[49] Democrats Sheirl Fletcher and Billy Hendricks challenged Rockefeller in the primary but were defeated. The Republican nominee is Jay Wolfe.
Republican incumbent races
Jeff Sessions of Alabama
Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions is running for re-election. Johnny Swanson announced his candidacy in March 2006 for the Democratic nomination.[50] On January 10, 2007, U.S. Representative Artur Davis (AL-7) announced that he will not run for the seat.[51]
Despite voting heavily for Bush in 2004, Alabama still has a strong Democratic presence; Democrats control majorities of both chambers in the state legislature. Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks appeared to be preparing for a run, but on June 12, 2007, Sparks announced that he will not seek the Senate seat, in order to avoid a primary battle with state Senator Vivian Davis Figures.[52] Figures has won elections in the Republican-leaning Mobile area. In the Democratic primary, Figures won the nomination and will face Sessions in November.
Not on the ballot, but running a write-in campaign, is Darryl W. Perry, the 2004 Libertarian Party nominee for Pennsylvania State Treasurer and 2007 candidate for Mayor of Birmingham, Alabama.[53][54] Perry is endorsed by Alabama Statesmen,[55] Boston Tea Party,[56] Christians for Life and Liberty[57] and PaulCongress.com[58]
Ted Stevens of Alaska
Dispelling rumors that he would retire due to advanced age (he will be 85 years old in November) and ongoing federal investigations into his conduct, Senator Ted Stevens filed papers for re-election for an eighth term.[59] An oil company executive who bribed many Alaskan politicians paid for construction work on Stevens's personal residence. It has also been revealed that the FBI had recorded Stevens's phone calls with the Alaskan contractor who is cooperating with them.
The FBI is investigating the remodeling of Stevens home by Veco Corp., which is part of a broader corruption investigation involving Stevens's son, former State Senate President Ben Stevens.[60] Two former Veco executives have plead guilty to paying the younger Stevens $242,000 in bribes.[61] On July 30, 2007, the IRS and FBI raided Stevens's home in Alaska. On September 14, 2007, former Veco CEO Bill Allen testified at the trial of former State House Speaker Pete Kott that Veco paid people working to double the size of Stevens's home.[62]
On July 29, 2008, a federal grand jury indicted Stevens on 7 felony counts for making false statements.[63]
Republicans have several choices in this conservative state such as former Lieutenant Governor Loren Leman; former state Senator John Binkley, who ran for Governor in 2006; state Senate Minority Leader Gene Therriault; State House Speaker John Harris; and State Representative Tom Anderson.[citation needed]
The leading Democratic candidate is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of popular former Democratic Representative Nick Begich, who announced his candidacy for the Senate seat on April 22, 2008.[64] Other Democrats mentioned are State Representative Eric Croft, a reformer who garnered attention when he sought the governorship in 2006; state Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis; and state Representative Scott Kawasaki are also on the list of Democratic prospects.[65]
On October 19, 2007, the AP reported that despite the allegations and FBI probe, several veteran GOP Senators—including Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), and Kit Bond (R-MO)—donated enough money to Stevens's re-election campaign to make it one of Stevens's most successful fund raising quarters ever.[66]
Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
In 2002, Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss defeated Democratic incumbent Max Cleland in a campaign that featured television commercials linking Cleland, a triple amputee veteran of the Vietnam War, to Osama bin Laden. Chambliss is seeking re-election.
In December 2007, Chambliss had an approval rating of 53% and a disapproval rating of 34% according to Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm.[67]
Democratic Georgia Commissioner of Human Resources, former General Assembly member, 2006 candidate for Lieutenant Governor and Vietnam War veteran Jim Martin is the Democratic nominee, having defeated Vernon Jones, CEO of Dekalb County by a 59% to 41% margin in the August 5 runoff.
Libertarian Allen Buckley is a declared candidate,[68] along with frequent candidate Eleanor Garcia of the Socialist Workers Party.[69]
Pat Roberts of Kansas
Senator Pat Roberts has indicated that he will seek re-election. Although Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, former Democratic Congressman and army veteran Jim Slattery has been nominated to run against Roberts. Pat Roberts currently has an approval rating of 56%.[70]
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
Democrats have made Senate Minority Leader, four-term Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky a target due to his leadership of Senate Republicans and his ties to President Bush, as well as his mediocre approval rating in the state, which is below 50%.[71]
Businessman and U.S. Army veteran Bruce Lunsford, who lost the 2007 Democratic gubernatorial primary to current Governor Steve Beshear, is the Democratic nominee.
Susan Collins of Maine
In Maine, Susan Collins has informed the Lewiston Sun Journal that she intends to seek another term.[72] Collins is likely to start as a strong favorite.[73] Also in her favor is the landslide re-election of Maine's senior Senator, Olympia Snowe, who had the largest margin of victory of any GOP Senate candidate - besides the largely unopposed Dick Lugar (R-IN) - in the 2006 election cycle. Collins was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2002 over State Sen. Chellie Pingree. Sen. Joe Lieberman, citing his status as an independent, endorsed Sen. Collins in her 2008 re-election bid.
On May 8, 2007, Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) announced his candidacy on his website. He had already expressed interest in running and had been building the apparatus necessary to wage a Senate campaign.[74] On the same day a poll was released by Critical Insights, an independent polling firm in Portland, ME, which showed Sen. Collins as the clear early favorite, with Collins leading Allen 57% to 30%, and another poll shows Collins with a lead of 57% to 32%. On June 10, 2008, Allen defeated Thomas Ledue, an educator from Springvale, Maine, to win the Democratic nomination.
On May 16, 2008, Rasmussen Reports published a poll showing Collins' lead has shrunk to 10 points, 52% to 42%. However, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll released on August 15, 2008 shows that Collins has reclaimed a more substantial 53% to 38% lead.
Norm Coleman of Minnesota
Senator Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against Walter Mondale (former US vice president) after incumbent Paul Wellstone of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), died in an October plane crash. In 2006, popular Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar defeated retiring Republican representative Mark Kennedy in a senate race, and the DFL party took large majorities in the State House, gaining 19 seats, and made further gains in the state senate. Six-term Republican representative Gil Gutknecht was also defeated that year. A December 2007 poll showed Coleman's approval rating among Minnesota voters as 53%.[75]
Comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken confirmed on the final broadcast of his radio show on Air America, February 14, 2007, that he will run for the Senate seat in 2008.[76] He had publicly speculated about running for some time and in 2005, he established the Midwest Values PAC to lay the groundwork for that campaign. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, a professor at the University of St. Thomas (St. Paul, Minnesota), joined the race in October 2007.[77]
Attorney Mike Ciresi, who lost to Mark Dayton in the 2000 Democratic senate primary, was considered (along with Franken) most likely to become the Democratic nominee. However, Ciresi withdrew from the race on March 10, 2008.[78]
The 2008 Republican National Convention was held in the capital city of Saint Paul, where Coleman was once Mayor (elected in 1993 as a moderate-to-conservative DFLer and re-elected in 1997 as a Republican).
On June 12, 2007, Joe Repya announced that he is considering challenging Coleman in the Republican primary. The previous week Repya ran for election of the chair of the Minnesota GOP. He lost that election. Repya, a retired lieutenant colonel, is a pro-Iraq War activist and formerly advised Coleman on military and veterans issues in his 2002 campaign.[79] Ultimately, Repya did not file to run. Michael Cavlan the 2006 Green Party candidate for the United States Senate is running again in 2008.[citation needed] Former Governor Jesse Ventura has also speculated he would run as an Independent in 2008, but the day before filing, Ventura decided not to run.[80] Former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley has announced he will run as an Independence Party candidate.[81][82] Ultimately, Repya, Cavlan and Ventura did not file to run for the office. Ventura announced his decision not to run soon before the deadline, and several other Independence Party candidates filed to run quickly after his announcement, including former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley and former state party chair Jack Uldrich.
Early polling showed Coleman with a large lead over prospective Democratic opponents. [83] [84] [85] [86][83][84] Since then, the senate race in Minnesota has been one of the more hotly contested this year. A January 29 Minnesota Public Radio poll showed the first lead for Franken over Coleman.[87] As of mid-July, an average of polls showed Coleman with a seven-point lead over Franken.[88] However, a Star-Tribune poll on October 4th showed Franken with a nine-point lead[89]
The deadline to file to run for the office was July 15. As of the deadline, 18 candidates had filed to run, including seven from the DFL Party, two from the Republican Party, seven from the Independence Party, and one each from the Libertarian Party and Constitution Party.[90][91]
Thad Cochran of Mississippi
Incumbent Senator Thad Cochran has announced that he will seek re-election for a sixth term.[92] Cochran, who has not faced serious opposition since he was re-elected in 1984, will face Democrat Erik R. Fleming.
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
Roger Wicker, formerly the representative of Mississippi's 1st congressional district, was appointed by Governor Haley Barbour on December 31, 2007, to fill the vacancy caused by the December 18 resignation of Trent Lott.[93][94] It has been speculated that Lott wished to resign before a new lobbying reform law, effective the first day of 2008, took effect; having resigned before the end of 2007 Lott may become a lobbyist in 2009 instead of 2010.[94] Controversy arose when Barbour called for the special election to be held on the same day as the general election. As a result, Mississippi's Attorney General Jim Hood challenged Barbour in court, claiming that the special election needed to be held within 100 days of Lott's resignation, as per state law.[95] Initially, a Mississippi Circuit Court judge sided with Hood, ruling that the election take place on or before March 19, 2008.[96] However, Barbour filed an appeal to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which overturned the earlier ruling and set the special election for November 4, 2008.[97][98]
Democratic former governor Ronnie Musgrove will challenge Wicker. Another Democrat, former congressman Ronnie Shows, also filed to run, but he withdrew in February 2008 and endorsed Mugsrove.[99][100] There will be no special primary election for this race; if the top candidate does not get a majority of the votes, a runoff election with the top two candidates will be held on November 25, 2008.
John Sununu of New Hampshire
Senator John Sununu represents the swing state of New Hampshire. The state traditionally leaned Republican, but John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts narrowly won here in the 2004 Presidential election. New Hampshire also saw major Democratic gains in the 2006 elections, when Democrats took both of the previously Republican-held House seats, the gubernatorial race with a record vote share of 74%, and majorities in the State House and Senate, giving them concurrent control of both bodies for the first time since 1874. However, New Hampshire has not elected a Democratic United States Senator since 1975.
However, Sununu's 2002 opponent, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, has decided to run and is generally considered to be a very formidable challenger.[101] Three consecutive monthly Rasmussen Reports poll show Shaheen defeating Sununu by 49% to 41%.[102]
Prior to Shaheen's entry, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand,[103] Katrina Swett, wife of former Democratic congressman Richard Swett,[104] and former astronaut Jay Buckey[105] had announced that they were running for the Democratic nomination. After Shaheen's entry, however, all three withdrew and endorsed the former governor.
Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina
In North Carolina, there had been rumors that Senator Elizabeth Dole would retire from the Senate and run for governor, but she said in 2006 that she intends to run for re-election.[106] There was early speculation that North Carolina Governor Mike Easley might be pressured into running against her but this did not come to pass.[107] The Democratic nominee is state Senator Kay Hagan,[108] who defeated Jim Neal and Dustin Lassiter in the Primary. A Rasmussen poll released May 11, 2008 showed Hagan leading Dole by a statistically insignificant margin, 48% - 47%,[109] suggesting a competitive race. Hagan's poll numbers have continued to best Dole's, however, and a September 22th Rasmussen Poll puts her over the Republican incumbent 51%-45%.[110]
Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
In Oklahoma, Senator Jim Inhofe has announced that he will seek a third full term. A September 2007 poll put Inhofe's approval rating at 47%, with 41% disapproving of his performance.[111]
State Senator Andrew Rice announced he will run against Inhofe.[112]
Gordon Smith of Oregon
Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon is running for a third term, and may be vulnerable. He defeated ophthalmologist Gordon Leitch[113] in the May 20 Republican primary.
Smith will face Democratic Oregon House of Representatives Speaker Jeff Merkley in the November general election. Merkley beat longtime Democratic activist Steve Novick and three other candidates in a hotly contested primary.[114]
In a July 16, 2008 poll, Merkley overtook Smith for the first time 43% to 41%.[115]
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham, as a popular Republican incumbent in strongly conservative South Carolina, is unlikely to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. Graham's support for a compromise immigration bill, however, drew an angry response from many South Carolina conservatives, who recruited Buddy Witherspoon, a former South Carolina Republican Party leader, to challenge Graham for the nomination. Graham easily bested Witherspoon in the June 10 primary.[116]
First-time candidate Bob Conley is the Democratic nominee.[117]
The South Carolina Working Families Party has nominated Michael Cone, who also ran for the Democratic nomination. This is the first time the party has nominated a candidate for statewide office.[118]
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Former Governor and U.S. Secretary of Education Lamar Alexander was elected in 2002 to succeed retiring Senator Fred Thompson. He has announced he will seek a second term in 2008.[119] He is unopposed in the Republican primary.
Former Chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party Bob Tuke is the Democratic nominee, defeating Businessman Gary Davis 30% to 23%. Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett Received 20% of the vote.
2006 Green Party Senate nominee Chris Lugo originally announced as a Democrat but dropped out of the Democratic race before the filing deadline. He filed as an independent and was subsequently named as the Green Party nominee[120] Also in the race is Edward Buck.
Daniel Lewis is running as a Libertarian candidate for the United States Senate. He was certified March 3, 2008 by the Tennessee Division of Elections as having achieved ballot access for the November 4, 2008 election as a candidate for United States Senate. The Libertarian Party of Tennessee officially selected Daniel Lewis as their candidate for United States Senate on Saturday March 8, 2008 the at their annual convention held in Nashville, Tennessee. Mr. Lewis is currently serving as the chairman of the Libertarian Party of Metropolitan Nashville and Davidson County. He ran for the Tennessee House in 2004.[121]
Also reported to be in the race are David "None of the Above" Gatchell a ballot activist & frequent candidate and Emory "Bo" Heyward, a software company employee, conservative activist & 2006 candidate.
John Cornyn of Texas
Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 1994, but according to recent Rasmussen polling Senator John Cornyn has an approval rating of 50%.[122] Texas House of Representatives member and Afganistan War veteran Rick Noriega secured his place as Cornyn's Democratic challenger in the March 4 primary, beating out opponents Gene Kelly, Ray McMurrey, and Rhett Smith. The same Rasmussen poll shows Cornyn leading Noriega by a narrow four percentage points - 47% to 43% - suggesting that this race may prove to be unexpectedly competitive. However, most polls have shown a much wider margin.
Christian activist Larry Kilgore of Mansfield, Texas, was a Republican challenger for the March 2008 primary election, but Cornyn easily won the Republican primary.[123]
There are three Libertarians, including 2006 LP senate nominee Scott Jameson, running for their party's nomination.[124] In addition, the Green Party of Texas is seeking ballot access for its candidate David B. Collins.[125]
Michael Enzi of Wyoming
Senator Mike Enzi is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition for a third term in strongly Republican Wyoming. His Democratic opponent is Chris Rothfuss, a professor at the University of Wyoming and a chemical engineer, nanotechnologist, and diplomat. Recent polling indicates that Enzi leads Rothfuss by 24%.
John Barrasso of Wyoming
John Barrasso was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) on June 22, 2007 to fill the senate seat of Republican Craig L. Thomas, who died on June 4.[126] Wyoming law requires that the interim senator be affiliated with the same political party as the departed senator. Barrasso is running in the November 8, 2008 special election, which will be held on the day of the 2008 presidential election, to serve out the remainder of Thomas' term, which expires in January 2013.[127]
On the Democratic side, Casper City Councilman Keith Goodenough announced his candidacy.[128] In the primary on August 19, Goodenough was defeated by a political newcomer, Gillette defense attorney Nick Carter.[129]
Summary table
| State | Incumbent Senator | 2008 Election Status | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | Other Candidates | Previous Election Results[130] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | Jeff Sessions | Running for Re-election | Vivian Davis Figures | Jeff Sessions | Jeff Sessions (R) 59% Susan Parker (D) 40% Other 1% |
|
| AK | Ted Stevens | Running for Re-election | Mark Begich | Ted Stevens | Bob Bird (AIP) Ted Gianoutsos (Vet) David Haase (L) |
Ted Stevens (R) 78% Frank Vondersaar (D) 11% Jim Sykes (G) 8% Other 3% |
| AR | Mark Pryor | Running for Re-election | Mark Pryor | Rebekah Kennedy (G) | Tim Hutchinson (R) 46% Mark Pryor (D) 54% |
|
| CO | Wayne Allard | Retiring | Mark Udall | Bob Schaffer | Doug Campbell (C) Bob Kinsey (G) |
Wayne Allard (R) 51% Tom Strickland (D) 46% Other 3% |
| DE | Joe Biden | Running for Re-election | Joe Biden | Christine O'Donnell | Joe Biden (D) 58% Raymond Clatworthy (R) 41% Other 1% |
|
| GA | Saxby Chambliss | Running for Re-election | Jim Martin | Saxby Chambliss | Allen Buckley (L) | Max Cleland (D) 46% Saxby Chambliss (R) 53% Other 1% |
| ID | Larry Craig | Retiring | Larry LaRocco | Jim Risch | Kent Marmon (L) "Pro-Life" (I) Rex Rammell (I) |
Larry Craig (R) 65% Alan Blinken (D) 33% Other 2% |
| IL | Dick Durbin | Running for Re-election | Dick Durbin | Steve Sauerberg | Kathy Cummings (G) Chad Koppie (C) Larry Stafford (L) |
Dick Durbin (D) 60% Jim Durkin (R) 38% Other 2% |
| IA | Tom Harkin | Running for Re-election | Tom Harkin | Christopher Reed | Tom Harkin (D) 54% Greg Ganske (R) 44% Other 2% |
|
| KS | Pat Roberts | Running for Re-election | Jim Slattery | Pat Roberts | Randall Hodgkinson (L) Joseph Martin (Ref) |
Pat Roberts (R) 83% Steven Rosile (L) 9% George Cook (Reform) 8% |
| KY | Mitch McConnell | Running for Re-election | Bruce Lunsford | Mitch McConnell | Mitch McConnell (R) 65% Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35% |
|
| LA | Mary Landrieu | Running for Re-election | Mary Landrieu | John Kennedy | Richard Fontanesi (L) Jay Patel (I) Robert Stewart (I) |
Mary Landrieu (D) 52% Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48% |
| ME | Susan Collins | Running for Re-election | Tom Allen | Susan Collins | Susan Collins (R) 58% Chellie Pingree (D) 42% |
|
| MA | John Kerry | Running for Re-election | John Kerry | Jeff Beatty | Mary Jean Charbonneau (I) William Estrada (SW) Robert Underwood (L) |
John Kerry (D) 80% Michael Cloud (L) 18% Other 2% |
| MI | Carl Levin | Running for Re-election | Carl Levin | Jack Hoogendyk | Scott Boman (L) Doug Dern (Nat Law) Harley Mikkelson (G) Michael Nikitin (C) |
Carl Levin (D) 60% Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38% Other 2% |
| MN | Norm Coleman | Running for Re-election | Al Franken | Norm Coleman | Charles Aldrich (L) Dean Barkley (MIP) James Niemackl (C) |
Walter Mondale (D) 47% Norm Coleman (R) 50% Other 3% |
| MS | Thad Cochran | Running for Re-election | Erik Fleming | Thad Cochran | Thad Cochran (R) 85% Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 15% |
|
| MS* | Roger Wicker | Running for Election | Ronnie Musgrove | Roger Wicker | Trent Lott (R) 64% Erik Fleming (D) 35% |
|
| MT | Max Baucus | Running for Re-election | Max Baucus | Bob Kelleher | Max Baucus (D) 63% Mike Taylor (R) 32% Other 5% |
|
| NE | Chuck Hagel | Retiring | Scott Kleeb | Mike Johanns | Steve Larrick (G) Kelly Rosberg (Neb) |
Chuck Hagel (R) 83% Charlie Matulka (D) 15% Other 2% |
| NH | John Sununu | Running for Re-election | Jeanne Shaheen | John Sununu | Ken Blevens (L) | John Sununu (R) 51% Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46% Other 3% |
| NJ | Frank Lautenberg | Running for Re-election | Frank Lautenberg | Dick Zimmer | Jeffrey Boss (I) Daryl Mikell Brooks (I) J. M. Carter (I) Sara Lobman (SW) Jason Scheurer (L) |
Frank Lautenberg (D) 54% Doug Forrester (R) 44% Other 2% |
| NM | Pete Domenici | Retiring | Tom Udall | Steve Pearce | Pete Domenici (R) 65% Gloria Tristani (D) 35% |
|
| NC | Elizabeth Dole | Running for Re-election | Kay Hagan | Elizabeth Dole | Chris Cole (L) | Elizabeth Dole (R) 54% Erskine Bowles (D) 45% Other 1% |
| OK | Jim Inhofe | Running for Re-election | Andrew Rice | Jim Inhofe | Stephen Wallace (I) | Jim Inhofe (R) 57% David Walters (D) 36% James Germalic (I) 6% Other 1% |
| OR | Gordon Smith | Running for Re-election | Jeff Merkley | Gordon Smith | Dave Brownlow (C) | Gordon Smith (R) 56% Bill Bradbury (D) 40% Other 4% |
| RI | Jack Reed | Running for Re-election | Jack Reed | Robert Tingle | Jack Reed (D) 78% Robert Tingle (R) 22% |
|
| SC | Lindsey Graham | Running for Re-election | Bob Conley | Lindsey Graham | Lindsey Graham (R) 54% Alex Sanders (D) 44% Other 2% |
|
| SD | Tim Johnson | Running for Re-election | Tim Johnson | Joel Dykstra | Tim Johnson (D) 50% John Thune (R) 49% Other 1% |
|
| TN | Lamar Alexander | Running for Re-election | Bob Tuke | Lamar Alexander | Edward Buck (I) Christopher Fenner (I) David Gatchell (I) Ed Lawhorn (I) Daniel Lewis (I) Chris Lugo (G) |
Lamar Alexander (R) 54% Bob Clement (D) 44% Other 2% |
| TX | John Cornyn | Running for Re-election | Rick Noriega | John Cornyn | Yvonne Adams Schick (L) | John Cornyn (R) 55% Ron Kirk (D) 43% Other 2% |
| VA | John Warner | Retiring | Mark Warner | Jim Gilmore | Gail Parker (IG) Bill Redpath (L) |
John Warner (R) 83% Nancy Spannaus (I) 10% Jacob G. Hornberger (I) 7% |
| WV | Jay Rockefeller | Running for Re-election | Jay Rockefeller | Jay Wolfe | Rick Bartlett (W) | Jay Rockefeller (D) 63% Jay Wolfe (R) 37% |
| WY | Mike Enzi | Running for Re-election | Chris Rothfuss | Mike Enzi | Mike Enzi (R) 73% Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) 27% |
|
| WY* | John Barrasso | Running for Election | Nick Carter | John Barrasso | Craig Thomas (R) 70% Dale Groutage (D) 30% |
Senate composition before and after elections
| 110th Congress Senate Composition | 111th Congress Senate Composition | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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