United States House elections, 2008

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United States House of Representatives elections, 2008
All 435 seats to the United States House of Representatives
November 4, 2008
Leader Nancy Pelosi John Boehner
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat California-8th Ohio-8th
Last election 233 seats, 53.6% 202 seats, 46.4%
United States House of Representatives elections, 2008

House Seats up for election:

     Republican incumbent     Retiring Republican     Democratic incumbent     Retiring Democrat     Vacant as of August 2008
This article discusses contested races. For a complete list of all seats, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 - complete list

The 2008 U.S. House of Representatives elections will be held on November 4, 2008, to elect members to the United States House of Representatives to serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011. All 435 seats are up for election. Democrats, who regained a majority in the 2006 elections hope to retain or expand their control of Congress. Although it is very unlikely at this point[citation needed], the Republicans hope to regain the majority it lost in the 2006 elections or at least add to their numbers. Turnout likely will be increased due to the 2008 presidential election. The presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, and 2008 state gubernatorial elections, as well as many other state and local elections, will occur on the same date.

Contents

Composition going into the elections

The House currently has 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and one vacancy.

Special elections in 2008 for the 110th Congress

See also: United States House of Representatives special elections, 2007

Completed special elections

  • Louisiana's 1st congressional district: On January 14, 2008, Bobby Jindal (R) resigned to become Governor of Louisiana. The special election primary was held on March 8, 2008; it was the first closed primary in recent Louisiana history. For the Democrats, Gilda Reed defeated Vinny Mendoza with 69.75% of the vote to 30.25%. Since Reed received more than 50% of the vote, no runoff was necessary. On the Republican side, Steve Scalise received 48.34%, and Tim Burns was second with 27.72% meaning that a runoff was required. Scalise defeated Burns 58.08% to 41.92% in the primary runoff on April 5, 2008, and defeated Reed 75%-22% in the special general election on May 3, 2008.
  • Louisiana's 6th congressional district: On February 2, 2008, Richard Baker (R) resigned to become Director of the Managed Funds Association.[1] The special election primary took place on March 8, 2008. For the Democrats, Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson were the top two finishers with 34.93% and 27.17% respectively, but since no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, a runoff was scheduled for April 5, 2008. On the Republican side, Woody Jenkins barely missed avoiding a runoff with 49.87% of the vote. Laurinda Calongne finished second with 25.47%. In the runoff, Cazayoux defeated Jackson 56.80% to 43.20%, and Jenkins defeated Calongne 61.94% to 38.06%. Cazayoux (D) defeated Jenkins (R), 49% to 46%, in the special election on May 3, 2008.

Retiring Incumbents

Thirty-two incumbents are voluntarily retiring from the House.

Democratic incumbents

  1. Alabama's 5th congressional district: Bud Cramer: "[T]o spend more time with my family and begin another chapter in my life"[3]
  2. Colorado's 2nd congressional district: Mark Udall: To run for U.S. Senate
  3. Maine's 1st congressional district: Tom Allen: To run for U.S. Senate
  4. New Mexico's 3rd congressional district: Tom Udall: To run for U.S. Senate
  5. New York's 21st congressional district: Michael McNulty: "[I]t's not what I want to do for the rest of my life."[4]
  6. Oregon's 5th congressional district: Darlene Hooley: Because of the "cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service"[5]

Republican incumbents

  1. Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Terry Everett: Because of age and health[6]
  2. Arizona's 1st congressional district: Rick Renzi: To fight federal criminal charges involving a land-swap deal[7]
  3. California's 4th congressional district: John Doolittle: To fight an FBI corruption investigation[8]
  4. California's 52nd congressional district: Duncan Hunter: To run for President (dropped out)
  5. Colorado's 6th congressional district: Tom Tancredo: To run for President (dropped out)
  6. Florida's 15th congressional district: Dave Weldon: To return to his medical practice[9]
  7. Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller: To spend more time with his family,[10] amid questions about his Nicaraguan land dealings, his wife's investments, and his relationship to an indicted defense contractor[11]
  8. Illinois's 18th congressional district: Ray LaHood
  9. Kentucky's 2nd congressional district: Ron Lewis
  10. Louisiana's 4th congressional district: Jim McCrery
  11. Minnesota's 3rd congressional district: Jim Ramstad
  12. Mississippi's 3rd congressional district: Chip Pickering
  13. Missouri's 9th congressional district: Kenny Hulshof: To run for Governor
  14. New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Jim Saxton: Because of age and health[12]
  15. New Jersey's 7th congressional district: Mike Ferguson: To spend more time with his family[13]
  16. New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Heather Wilson: To run for U.S. Senate (lost the primary to 2nd District Congressman Steve Pearce)
  17. New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Steve Pearce: To run for U.S. Senate
  18. New York's 13th congressional district: Vito Fossella: Amid scandal following a drunk driving arrest which led to revelations of infidelity and a secret family he maintained in Virginia
  19. New York's 25th congressional district: Jim Walsh
  20. New York's 26th congressional district: Tom Reynolds
  21. Ohio's 7th congressional district: Dave Hobson
  22. Ohio's 15th congressional district: Deborah Pryce
  23. Ohio's 16th congressional district: Ralph Regula
  24. Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district: John Peterson: To spend more time with his family[14][15]
  25. Virginia's 11th congressional district: Tom Davis
  26. Wyoming's At-large congressional district: Barbara Cubin

Vacant seats

The following seats are vacant because of the death or resignation of the incumbent:

  1. Ohio's 11th congressional district: Incumbent Democrat Stephanie Tubbs Jones died of an aneurysm on August 20, 2008. On November 18, the district will hold a special election to fill Jones's seat for the remainder of the 110th Congress, until January 2009.

Defeated incumbents

Incumbents defeated for renomination

  1. Maryland's 1st congressional district: Wayne Gilchrest (R)
  2. Maryland's 4th congressional district: Albert Wynn (D) -subsequently resigned May 31, 2008
  3. Utah's 3rd congressional district: Chris Cannon (R)
  4. Tennessee's 1st congressional district: David Davis (R)

Predictions

Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[16]

On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (who bills himself as non-partisan) stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets". He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.[17]

In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said,

“ a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party. ”

Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".[18]

InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% as of early October 2008.[19]

There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[20]

Race ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered "safe" for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[21] Rothenberg[22] CQ Politics[23] Crystal Ball[24]
AL-2 (Everett) (R) Tossup Leans R Leans R Tossup
AL-5 (Cramer) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
AK-AL Young (R) Tossup D Favored Leans D Leans D
AZ-1 (Renzi) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
AZ-3 Shadegg (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
CA-4 (Doolittle) (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
CA-11 McNerney (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Solid R Limited Risk Safe R Likely R
CO-4 Musgrave (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
CT-2 Courtney (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
CT-4 Shays (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
CT-5 Murphy (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
FL-8 Keller (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Likely R
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Leans R
FL-15 (Weldon) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-16 Mahoney (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
FL-21 Diaz-Balart (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Leans R
FL-22 Klein (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
FL-24 Feeney (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Leans R
FL-25 Diaz-Balart (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Likely R
GA-8 Marshall (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
GA-12 Barrow (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
ID-1 Sali (R) Leans R R Favored R Favored Leans R
IL-6 Roskam (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
IL-8 Bean (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IL-10 Kirk (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
IL-11 (Weller) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
IL-13 Biggert (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IL-14 Foster (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
IL-18 (LaHood) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
IN-2 Donnelly (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
IN-3 Souder (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IN-7 Carson (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
IN-8 Ellsworth (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IN-9 Hill (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
IA-4 Latham (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
KS-2 Boyda (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
KS-3 Moore (D) Likely D D Favored D Favored Likely D
KY-2 (Lewis) (R) Leans R Leans R R Favored Likely R
KY-3 Yarmuth (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
LA-4 (McCrery) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Tossup
LA-6 Cazayoux (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
LA-7 Boustany (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
ME-1 (Allen) (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
MD-1 (Gilchrest) (R) Leans R R Favored R Favored Leans R
MI-7 Walberg (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
MI-9 Knollenberg (R) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Leans R
MN-1 Walz (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
MN-2 Kline (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
MN-3 (Ramstad) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
MN-6 Bachman (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
MS-1 Childers (D) Tossup D Favored Leans D Leans D
MO-6 Graves (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
MO-9 (Hulshof) (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Leans R
NE-2 Terry (R) Leans R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
NV-2 Heller (R) Leans R Limited Risk Leans R Leans R
NV-3 Porter (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Leans D
NH-2 Hodes (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NJ-3 (Saxton) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
NJ-5 Garrett (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
NJ-7 (Ferguson) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
NM-1 (Wilson) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
NM-2 (Pearce) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
NY-13 (Fossella) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Likely D
NY-19 Hall (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-20 Gillibrand (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-25 (Walsh) (R) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
NY-26 (Reynolds) (R) Leans R Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
NY-29 Kuhl (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
NC-8 Hayes (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Leans R
NC-10 McHenry (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
OH-1 Chabot (R) Tossup Leans R Leans R Leans R
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Likely R Leans R Leans R Leans R
OH-7 (Hobson) (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-14 LaTourette (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-15 (Pryce) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
OH-16 (Regula) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
OH-18 Space (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
OR-5 (Hooley) (D) Likely D Leans D Leans D Likely D
PA-3 English (R) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Leans R
PA-4 Altmire (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
PA-6 Gerlach (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Likely R
PA-8 Murphy (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-10 Carney (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Leans D
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Tossup
PA-15 Dent (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
PA-18 Murphy (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
TN-04 Davis (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Safe D
TX-7 Culberson (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
TX-10 McCaul (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
TX-22 Lampson (D) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Tossup
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
VA-2 Drake (R) Leans R Leans R R Favored Leans R
VA-5 Goode (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
VA-10 Wolf (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
VA-11 (Davis) (R) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
WA-8 Reichert (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Tossup
WV-2 Capito (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
WI-8 Kagen (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
WY-AL (Cubin) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R Likely R

Factors

 This section may contain original research or unverified claims.
Please help Wikipedia by adding references. See the talk page for details.(June 2008)

The Democrats control the 110th United States Congress and the House of Representatives.

Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:

Factor Reason Example
Age The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Day 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open. Several representatives are at least 70 years of age, with the oldest being Ralph Hall (R-TX), age 85. So far, three representatives 70 years of age or older, all Republicans, have decided not to seek re-election.
District demographics The incumbent represents a district that leans or strongly favors the opposing party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote. There are, as of the 2006 elections, about 70 Democratic seats won by Bush in 2004, compared to 4 Republican seats won by Kerry. This is a change from (as of 2004) 44 Democrats in seats Bush won in both 2000 and 2004, as opposed to 11 Republicans in districts won by Gore and Kerry. Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) represent districts that favor the opposing party. Additionally, Tom Davis (R-VA) represents a swing (but Democratic-trending) district while Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) represents a district that is politically balanced and known for competitive races.
Governor controversies Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana and Missouri races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of their Republican governors.
Health issues The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forgo plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress. Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Bill Young (R-FL) pondered retirement for health reasons before running for re-election 2006. Additionally, six members of the House (3 Republicans, 3 Democrats) died during the 110th Congress.
Higher office aspirations The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat, the governor's mansion, or for mayor of a major city. Mark Udall (D-CO) will run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). Bobby Jindal (R-LA) was elected governor of Louisiana. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) is rumored to be considering a run for mayor of New York City in 2009.
Redistricting Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican. Two recent redistrictings, in Texas in 2003 and in Georgia in 2005, have made some Democratic districts more vulnerable. In 2006, Georgia Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall faced tough re-election bids.
Scandals The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party. The Jack Abramoff Indian lobbying scandal affected several members of Congress, many of whom were defeated in 2006. Some key Abramoff donor recipients, such as John Doolittle (R-CA) are still in office. Additionally, Democrats Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Tim Mahoney (D-FL) took the respective districts of Tom DeLay (R-TX) and Mark Foley (R-FL), both of which heavily favor Republicans, in the previous election.
Presidential coattails The 2008 presidential campaign could have positive or negative effects on the chances of election for some House candidates if the background, home state or region, ideology/policies or general perception of their party's 2008 candidate affect party support or turnout in their particular district. See coattail effect.


Races by state

Section contents: Alabama — Alaska — Arizona —Arkansas — California — Colorado — Connecticut — Delaware — Florida — Georgia — Hawaii — Idaho — Illinois — Indiana — Iowa — Kansas — Kentucky — Louisiana — Maine — Maryland — Massachusetts — Michigan — Minnesota — Mississippi — Missouri — Montana — Nebraska — Nevada — New Hampshire — New Jersey — New Mexico — New York — North Carolina — North Dakota — Ohio — Oklahoma — Oregon — Pennsylvania — Rhode Island — South Carolina — South Dakota — Tennessee — Texas — Utah — Vermont — Virginia — Washington — West Virginia — Wisconsin — Wyoming — Non-voting members

Alabama

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama, 2008
  • Alabama's 5th congressional district: In a surprise, incumbent Bud Cramer (D) will retire after 18 years.[25] This northern tier district usually votes Republican in national elections, giving Republicans a chance of a pick-up. The Republican nominee is insurance agent and 1994 and 1996 nominee Wayne Parker. The Democratic nominee is state Senator Parker Griffith. Cramer endorsed Griffith on April 8.[26]

Alaska

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2008
  • Alaska's At-large congressional district: Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since the district he represents covers the entire state, is running for re-election. Despite representing Alaska in the House since 1973, Young is now vulnerable due to a corruption investigation involving the misuse of campaign funds. Young's age (75), alleged corruption, and stance on federal pork gave him a tough Republican primary and now a competitive general election. Young defeated lieutenant governor Sean Parnell in the Republican primary by 304 votes.[27] Among Democrats, former state Representative Ethan Berkowitz defeated 2006 Democratic Party congressional nominee Diane Benson (who lost to Young in 2006 by 56% to 40%) in the Democratic primary, 55% to 37%. Bush won 61% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+14). A December 11, 2007 poll had Young trailing Berkowitz 49% to 42%.[28]

Arizona

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2008
  • Arizona's 1st congressional district: In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election,[29] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote against his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona State district in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is the Democratic nominee. Public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, is the Republican nominee. Civil Engineer Brent Maupin is the Independent candidate.
  • Arizona's 3rd congressional district: Outspoken conservative John Shadegg (R) had announced that he would not be a candidate for re-election, however, ten days later, announced that he would seek re-election. The district votes Republican in most elections. Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord,[30] The Democratic nominee, outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and has continued to raise large amounts, though he now trails Shadegg in funds.[31] Libertarian Attorney Michael Shoen has announced his candidacy.
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district: Freshman Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative J.D. Hayworth (R) by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (CPVI=R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race likely, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. He will be seriously opposed in 2008. Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is the Republican nominee. Businessman Warren Severin is the Libertarian candidate.

Arkansas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2008

None of Arkansas' four congressmen (Three democrats and one Republican) face a major party challenge.

California

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2008
  • California's 4th congressional district: On January 10, 2008, nine-term incumbent John Doolittle (R) announced he would retire when his term expires in 2009, to the relief of his fellow Republicans. He has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes. In 2006, Doolittle received only 49% of the vote compared to 46% for his opponent, retired Lt. Colonel and war veteran Charlie Brown (D). Brown is again the Democratic nominee. The FBI raided Doolitte's home in April 2007 in search of incriminating evidence,[35] and speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted. This district leans Republican - George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+11) - and normally could be expected to be a safe seat for the GOP. However, many pundits believed Doolittle faced almost certain defeat if he ran again. The Republican nominee is State Senator Tom McClintock, a conservative who was ran near-successful races for state Controller in 1994 and 2002.
  • California's 8th congressional district: This seat, held by house Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is in urban San Francisco, and considered relatively safe for the Democrats in any election year. The Republican nominee is Businesswoman and community leader Dana Walsh. However, prominent anti-war activist and "Peace Mom" Cindy Sheehan has declared as a "People before Politics" Independent candidate and will be challenging Pelosi this fall. It is unclear what impact this will have on the race, but many believe this will be an interesting race to watch. Pelosi is very popular and most pundits believe Sheehan has little to no chance of winning.

Colorado

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado, 2008
  • Colorado's 4th congressional district: Conservative Marilyn Musgrave (R), known for her staunch opposition to gay marriage, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Angie Paccione (D) and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who got 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area (CPVI=R+9), could make her vulnerable in 2008. Democrats suffered a setback when state Sen. Brandon Schaffer dropped out, citing his party's failure to clear the field. The Democratic nominee is Betsy Markey, businesswoman and regional director for U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar.[39] 2006 nominee Angie Paccione briefly launched a campaign, but left the race in September 2007.
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Tom Tancredo (R) announced his intention to retire in order to run what was an unsuccessful campaign for president. The district includes suburbs of Denver. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (CPVI=R+10) (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (he prevailed 53% to 44%). Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R) is the Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, former Appleton, Wisconsin City Councilor Hank Eng is the Democratic nominee.

Connecticut

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Connecticut, 2008
  • Connecticut's 2nd congressional district: In the closest U.S. House race of 2006, Joe Courtney (D) unseated three-term incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney's chance at re-election increased when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republican former Groton sub base commander Sean Sullivan has announced his candidacy. However, John Kerry won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+8), so Courtney may be hard to unseat, especially in a presidential year. Former State Department Of Environmental Protection scientist Scott Deshefy is running as a Green Party candidate,[40][41] Todd Vachon as a Socialist Party candidate,[42] and Dan Reale as a Libertarian.[43]
  • Connecticut's 4th congressional district: Chris Shays (R) won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004 (CPVI=D+5). The only Republican House member in New England, he will likely be a top target of Democrats if he runs in 2008. Former Goldman Sachs executive and community activist Jim Himes is the Democratic nominee. Richard Z. Duffee is running again as the Green Party Candidate after withdrawing form the 2006 race.[44]
  • Connecticut's 5th congressional district: Arguably the most conservative district in Connecticut - although it went to John Kerry with 50% to 48% in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). Freshman Chris Murphy (D) could be vulnerable, despite having unseated 24-year incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote in 2006. Republican state Senator David Cappiello is his parties' nominee.[45] National Republicans have begun running radio ads in the summer of 2007 claiming Murphy has adopted special interest fundraising politics he had claimed to oppose. In addition, Cappiello has accused Murphy of missing important votes.[46] Canton, Attorney Harold Burbank is running as a Green Party candidate.[47][48]

Delaware

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Delaware, 2008

Delaware's sole Congressman, Republican Michael Castle, is expected to win reelection over minor Democratic opposition.

Florida

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2008
  • Florida's 13th congressional district: Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter. Regardless, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008, though Buchanan is far ahead of Jennings in fundraising and is favored to win by political pundits. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.[50] Further complicating matters for Jennings, former Democratic Congressional candidate Jan Schneider has filed to run as an Independent.[51] George W. Bush won 56% of the district's vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
  • Florida's 15th congressional district: Seven-term incumbent Dave Weldon had easily won re-election contests for a decade. Weldon is retiring in 2008. State Senator Bill Posey is the Republican nominee and will most likely be favored to win. The Democratic nominee is physician Steve Blythe. Attorney and Ron Paul activist Frank Zilaitis is also running as an independent. Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
  • Florida's 16th congressional district: This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. Negron has announced that he will not run again. Attorney and Army veteran Tom Rooney defeated state Representative Gayle Harrell and Palm Beach Gardens city councilman Hal Valeche for the Republican nomination. George W. Bush won this district by a 10-point margin in 2004 (CPVI=R+2).
  • Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was re-elected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats have recruited former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008.[54] Feeney has been criticized for his close ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.[55] George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+3).

Georgia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Georgia, 2008
  • Georgia's 8th congressional district: Jim Marshall (D) survived a challenge from former Republican congressman Mac Collins in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid in 2008 against retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard, the Republican nominee.[57] Goddard's background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall has his own military background and is has well-established credibility on military issues. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+8).
  • Georgia's 12th congressional district: John Barrow (D) may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Rep. Max Burns (R) in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote, but in 2007 Burns declined to run again. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given John Kerry 51% in 2004 (CPVI=D+2). Barrow won against State Senator Regina Thomas in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, radio announcer and former congressional aide John Stone won against mechanical engineer and former presidential candidate Ray McKinney and Ben Crystal.

Hawaii

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaii, 2008

Both of Hawaii's Congressmen (both Democrats), are expected to win reelection over minor Republican opposition.

Idaho

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2008
  • Idaho's 1st congressional district: Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004 (CPVI=R+19). Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the GOP freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Sali defeated Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury in the March 27 primary.[58]. Walt Minnick, an army veteran, Boise businessman, and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996 is the Democratic nominee. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.

Illinois

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Illinois, 2008
  • Illinois's 8th congressional district: Melissa Bean (D) gained national attention by toppling longtime incumbent Phil Crane in 2004. However, the 8th is considered the most Republican of the Chicago suburban districts, and Bean has had a perennial spot on Republican target lists. Bean will face at least two challengers, Republican businessman, and former professional hockey player Steve Greenberg and Green Party candidate Iain Abernathy in the general election.[59]
  • Illinois's 10th congressional district: Mark Kirk (R) survived a close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47%. The district, the state's wealthiest, went for John Kerry with 54% in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk will again face his 2006 opponent, Dan Seals, who won the Democratic primary with 81% against a credible opponent. David Kalbfleisch, the founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party, has announced that he will run for the seat.[60] Kalbfleisch is a navy veteran and member of Iraq Veterans Against the War.[61][62]
  • Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller will be retiring at the end of his seventh term.[63] Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry (CPVI=R+1). The Republican nominee was New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, but he announced in February that he was dropping out of the race.[64] Local businessman Martin Ozinga was chosen to replace Baldermann as the Republican candidate.[65] State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson is the Democratic nominee. Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and chair of the IBHE-SAC,[66] is running as a Green Party candidate.
See also: Illinois's 14th congressional district special election, 2008

Indiana

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2008