United States House of Representatives elections, 2008
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| United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 All 435 seats to the United States House of Representatives |
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| November 4, 2008 | ||||
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| Leader | Nancy Pelosi | John Boehner | ||
| Party | Democratic | Republican | ||
| Leader's seat | California-8th | Ohio-8th | ||
| Last election | 233 seats, 53.6% | 202 seats, 46.4% | ||
- This article discusses contested races. For a complete list of all seats, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 - complete list
The 2008 U.S. House of Representatives elections will be held on November 4, 2008, to elect members to the United States House of Representatives to serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011. All 435 seats are up for election. Democrats, who regained a majority in the 2006 elections hope to retain or expand their control of Congress. Republicans hope to regain the majority it lost in the 2006 elections or at least add to their numbers. Turnout likely will be increased due to the 2008 presidential election. The presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, and 2008 state gubernatorial elections, as well as many other state and local elections, will occur on the same date.
Composition going into the elections
The House currently has 236 Democrats and 199 Republicans.
Special elections in 2008 for the 110th Congress
Completed special elections
- California's 12th congressional district: Tom Lantos (D) died February 11, 2008. In this heavily Democratic district, Jackie Speier (D) was elected to succeed him on April 8, 2008.
- Illinois's 14th congressional district: Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) resigned November 26, 2007. In a surprising upset, Bill Foster (D) defeated Jim Oberweis (R) in a special election on March 8, 2008. The two will likely face each other again in November for a full term.
- Indiana's 7th congressional district: Julia Carson (D) died December 17, 2007. André Carson (D), Julia's grandson, won the special election on March 11, 2008.
- Louisiana's 1st congressional district: On January 14, 2008, Bobby Jindal (R) resigned to become Governor of Louisiana. The special election primary was held on March 8, 2008; it was the first closed primary in recent Louisiana history. For the Democrats, Gilda Reed defeated Vinny Mendoza with 69.75% of the vote to 30.25%. Since Reed received more than 50% of the vote, no runoff was necessary. On the Republican side, Steve Scalise received 48.34%, and Tim Burns was second with 27.72% meaning that a runoff was required. Scalise defeated Burns 58.08% to 41.92% in the primary runoff on April 5, 2008, and defeated Reed 75%-22% in the special general election on May 3, 2008.
- Louisiana's 6th congressional district: On February 2, 2008, Richard Baker (R) resigned to become Director of the Managed Funds Association.[1] The special election primary took place on March 8, 2008. For the Democrats, Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson were the top two finishers with 34.93% and 27.17% respectively, but since no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, a runoff was scheduled for April 5, 2008. On the Republican side, Woody Jenkins barely missed avoiding a runoff with 49.87% of the vote. Laurinda Calongne finished second with 25.47%. In the runoff, Cazayoux defeated Jackson 56.80% to 43.20%, and Jenkins defeated Calongne 61.94% to 38.06%. Cazayoux (D) and Jenkins (R) faced each other in the special election on May 3, 2008. Cazayoux (D) defeated Jenkins (R) 49-46%.
- Mississippi's 1st congressional district: On December 31, 2007, Roger Wicker (R) was appointed to the U.S. Senate. No one received more than 50% in the special election on April 22, 2008. Prentiss County Chancery Court Clerk Travis Childers (Democrat) defeated Southaven, Mississippi mayor Greg Davis (Republican) in the runoff special election on May 13.[2]
- Maryland's 4th congressional district: Incumbent Albert Wynn (D), who lost his battle for renomination to Donna Edwards (D) in Maryland's March primary, resigned his seat on May 31, 2008. Donna Edwards also won the special election on June 17.
Retiring Incumbents
Thirty-three incumbents are voluntarily retiring from the House.
Democratic incumbents
- Alabama's 5th congressional district: Bud Cramer: "[T]o spend more time with my family and begin another chapter in my life"[3]
- Colorado's 2nd congressional district: Mark Udall: To run for U.S. Senate
- Maine's 1st congressional district: Tom Allen: To run for U.S. Senate
- New Jersey's 1st congressional district: Rob Andrews: To run for U.S. Senate (lost)
- New Mexico's 3rd congressional district: Tom Udall: To run for U.S. Senate
- New York's 21st congressional district: Michael McNulty: "[I]t's not what I want to do for the rest of my life."[4]
- Oregon's 5th congressional district: Darlene Hooley: Because of the "cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service."[5]
Republican incumbents
- Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Terry Everett: Because of age and health[6]
- Arizona's 1st congressional district: Rick Renzi: To fight Federal criminal charges involving a land-swap deal.[7]
- California's 4th congressional district: John Doolittle: To fight an FBI corruption investigation[8]
- California's 52nd congressional district: Duncan Hunter: To run for President (dropped out)
- Colorado's 6th congressional district: Tom Tancredo: To run for President (dropped out)
- Florida's 15th congressional district: Dave Weldon: To return to his medical practice[9]
- Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller: To spend more time with his family,[10] amid questions about his Nicaraguan land dealings, his wife's investments, and his relationship to an indicted defense contractor. [11]
- Illinois's 18th congressional district: Ray LaHood
- Kentucky's 2nd congressional district: Ron Lewis
- Louisiana's 4th congressional district: Jim McCrery
- Minnesota's 3rd congressional district: Jim Ramstad
- Mississippi's 3rd congressional district: Chip Pickering
- Missouri's 9th congressional district: Kenny Hulshof: To run for Governor
- New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Jim Saxton
- New Jersey's 7th congressional district: Mike Ferguson
- New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Heather Wilson: To run for U.S. Senate (lost)
- New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Steve Pearce: To run for U.S. Senate
- New York's 13th congressional district: Vito Fossella
- New York's 25th congressional district: Jim Walsh
- New York's 26th congressional district: Tom Reynolds
- Ohio's 7th congressional district: Dave Hobson
- Ohio's 15th congressional district: Deborah Pryce
- Ohio's 16th congressional district: Ralph Regula
- Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district: John Peterson
- Virginia's 11th congressional district: Tom Davis
- Wyoming's At-large congressional district: Barbara Cubin
Defeated incumbents
Incumbents defeated for renomination
- Maryland's 1st congressional district: Wayne Gilchrest (R)
- Maryland's 4th congressional district: Albert Wynn (D-subsequently resigned May 31, 2008)
- Utah's 3rd congressional district: Chris Cannon (R)
Incumbents defeated in general election
Predictions
Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[12]
On April 8th, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (who bills himself as non-partisan) stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets." He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats. [13]
In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008." He also said that "a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party;" Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election."[14]
InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 89% as of early February 2008.[15]
There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[16]
Race ratings
The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered "safe" for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for reelection have parentheses around their name.)
| District | Incumbent | Cook[17] | Rothenberg[18] | CQ Politics[19] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | (Everett) (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R |
| AL-3 | Rogers (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| AL-5 | (Cramer) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| AK-AL | Young (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| AZ-1 | (Renzi) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans D |
| AZ-3 | Shadegg (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| AZ-5 | Mitchell (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| AZ-8 | Giffords (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| CA-4 | (Doolittle) (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
| CA-11 | McNerney (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans D |
| CA-46 | Rohrabacher (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| CA-50 | Bilbray (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| CO-4 | Musgrave (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R |
| CT-2 | Courtney (D) | Safe D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| CT-4 | Shays (R) | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| CT-5 | Murphy (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
| FL-8 | Keller (R) | Leans R | R Favored | R Favored |
| FL-9 | Bilirakis (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| FL-13 | Buchanan (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
| FL-15 | (Weldon) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| FL-16 | Mahoney (D) | Leans D | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| FL-21 | Diaz-Balart (R) | Leans R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| FL-22 | Klein (D) | Safe D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| FL-24 | Feeney (R) | Leans R | Leans R | R Favored |
| FL-25 | Diaz-Balart (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| GA-8 | Marshall (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
| GA-12 | Barrow (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
| ID-1 | Sali (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| IL-6 | Roskam (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored |
| IL-8 | Bean (D) | D Favored | D Favored | Leans D |
| IL-10 | Kirk (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R |
| IL-11 | (Weller) (R) | Leans D | Leans D | D Favored |
| IL-14 | Foster (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
| IL-18 | (LaHood) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| IN-2 | Donnelly (D) | Safe D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| IN-3 | Souder (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| IN-7 | Carson (D) | Safe D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| IN-8 | Ellsworth (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| IN-9 | Hill (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| IA-4 | Latham (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| KS-2 | Boyda (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| KS-3 | Moore (D) | Likely D | Leans D | D Favored |
| KY-2 | (Lewis) (R) | R Favored | R Favored | Safe R |
| KY-3 | Yarmuth (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| LA-4 | (McCrery) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R |
| LA-6 | Cazayoux (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| ME-1 | (Allen) (D) | Safe D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| MD-1 | (Gilchrest) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| MI-7 | Walberg (R) | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| MI-9 | Knollenberg (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
| MN-1 | Walz (D) | Likely D | Leans D | Leans D |
| MN-2 | Kline(R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| MN-3 | (Ramstad) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| MN-6 | Bachman (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored |
| MS-1 | Childers (D) | Tossup | Leans D | Leans D |
| MO-6 | Graves (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
| MO-9 | (Hulshof) (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
| NE-2 | Terry (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| NV-2 | Heller (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| NV-3 | Porter (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
| NH-1 | Shea-Porter (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
| NH-2 | Hodes (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| NJ-3 | (Saxton) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans R |
| NJ-5 | Garrett (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| NJ-7 | (Ferguson) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| NM-1 | (Wilson) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| NM-2 | (Pearce) (R) | Leans R | R Favored | R Favored |
| NY-13 | (Fossella) (R) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | D Favored |
| NY-19 | Hall (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
| NY-20 | Gillibrand (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| NY-24 | Arcuri (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| NY-25 | (Walsh) (R) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| NY-26 | (Reynolds) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans R |
| NY-29 | Kuhl (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R |
| NC-8 | Hayes (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | No Clear Favorite |
| NC-10 | McHenry (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| NC-11 | Shuler (D) | Safe D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| OH-1 | Chabot (R) | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| OH-2 | Schmidt (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R |
| OH-7 | (Hobson) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| OH-14 | LaTourette (R) | Safe R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| OH-15 | (Pryce) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| OH-16 | (Regula) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite |
| OH-18 | Space (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
| OR-5 | (Hooley) (D) | Leans D | Leans D | No Clear Favorite |
| PA-3 | English (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R |
| PA-4 | Altmire (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| PA-5 | (Peterson) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| PA-6 | Gerlach (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
| PA-7 | Sestak (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
| PA-8 | Murphy (D) | Likely D | D Favored | D Favored |
| PA-10 | Carney (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans D |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski (D) | Likely D | Leans D | Safe D |
| PA-15 | Dent (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| PA-18 | Murphy (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored |
| TX-7 | (Culberson) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| TX-10 | (McCaul) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| TX-22 | Lampson (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans D |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
| VA-2 | Drake (R) | Leans R | R Favored | R Favored |
| VA-5 | Goode (R) | R Favored | Limited Risk | R Favored |
| VA-10 | Wolf (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
| VA-11 | (Davis) (R) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| WA-8 | Reichert (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | No Clear Favorite |
| WV-2 | Capito (R) | Leans R | R Favored | R Favored |
| WI-8 | Kagen (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| WY-AL | (Cubin) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
Factors
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This section may contain original research or unverified claims. Please help Wikipedia by adding references. See the talk page for details.(June 2008) |
The Democrats control the 110th United States Congress and the House of Representatives.
Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:
| Factor | Reason | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Age | The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Day 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open. | Several representatives are at least 70 years of age, with the oldest being Ralph Hall (R-TX), age 85. So far, three representatives 70 years of age or older, all Republicans, have decided not to seek re-election. |
| District demographics | The incumbent represents a district that leans or strongly favors the opposing party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote. There are, as of the 2006 elections, about 70 Democratic seats won by Bush in 2004, compared to 4 Republican seats won by Kerry. This is a change from (as of 2004) 44 Democrats in seats Bush won in both 2000 and 2004, as opposed to 11 Republicans in districts won by Gore and Kerry. | Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) represent districts that favor the opposing party. Additionally, Tom Davis (R-VA) represents a swing (but Democratic-trending) district while Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) represents a district that is politically balanced and known for competitive races. |
| Governor controversies | Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana and Missouri races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of their Republican governors. | |
| Health issues | The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forgo plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress. | Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Bill Young (R-FL) pondered retirement for health reasons before running for re-election 2006. Additionally, six members of the House (3 Republicans, 3 Democrats) died during the 110th Congress. |
| Higher office aspirations | The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat, the governor's mansion, or for mayor of a major city. | Mark Udall (D-CO) will run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). Bobby Jindal (R-LA) was elected governor of Louisiana. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) is rumored to be considering a run for mayor of New York City in 2009. |
| Redistricting | Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican. | Two recent redistrictings, in Texas in 2003 and in Georgia in 2005, have made some Democratic districts more vulnerable. In 2006, Georgia Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall faced tough re-election bids. |
| Scandals | The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party. | The Jack Abramoff Indian lobbying scandal affected several members of Congress, many of whom were defeated in 2006. Some key Abramoff donor recipients, such as John Doolittle (R-CA) are still in office. Additionally, Democrats Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Tim Mahoney (D-FL) took the respective districts of Tom DeLay (R-TX) and Mark Foley (R-FL), both of which heavily favor Republicans, in the previous election. |
| Presidential coattails | The 2008 presidential campaign could have positive or negative effects on the chances of election for some House candidates if the background, home state or region, ideology/policies or general perception of their party's 2008 candidate affect party support or turnout in their particular district. | See coattail effect. |
Races by state
| Section contents: Alabama — Alaska — Arizona —Arkansas — California — Colorado — Connecticut — Delaware — Florida — Georgia — Hawaii — Idaho — Illinois — Indiana — Iowa — Kansas — Kentucky — Louisiana — Maine — Maryland — Massachusetts — Michigan — Minnesota — Mississippi — Missouri — Montana — Nebraska — Nevada — New Hampshire — New Jersey — New Mexico — New York — North Carolina — North Dakota — Ohio — Oklahoma — Oregon — Pennsylvania — Rhode Island — South Carolina — South Dakota — Tennessee — Texas — Utah — Vermont — Virginia — Washington — West Virginia — Wisconsin — Wyoming — Non-voting members |
Alabama
- Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Terry Everett (R), 71, is retiring. This district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. The Republican nominee will be favored to hold this district — George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here (CPVI=R+13).On the Republican side, State Sen. Harri Anne Smith and State Rep. Jay Love are going to a runoff, with Love being the strong favorite to be the nominee. The Democratic nominee is Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright.
- Alabama's 5th congressional district: In a surprise, incumbent Bud Cramer (D) will retire after 18 years.[20] This northern tier district usually votes Republican in national elections, giving Republicans a chance of a pick-up. On the Republican side, Insurance Agent and 1994 and 1996 nominee Wayne Parker and attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie are going to a runoff, with Parker considered the strong favorite to be the nominee. The Democratic nominee is state Senator Parker Griffith. Cramer originally indicated that he didn't have a preferred successor didn't rule out endorsing a Republican,[21] but on April 8, he endorsed Griffith.[22]
Alaska
- Alaska's At-large congressional district: Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since the district he represents covers the entire state, will most likely stand for reelection. Young will be 75 in 2008. Once considered politically secure, Young recently became the target of a serious corruption investigation involving the misuse of campaign funds. Young's age, alleged corruption, and stance on federal pork has now made him a likely target for both parties. Recently, State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux has announced she will challenge Young in the GOP primary.[23] Lt. Governor Sean Parnell will also challenge Young in the primary.[24] A strong primary challenge was once rumored from State Sen. Lesil McGuire until McGuire became the target of an ethics investigation as well.[25] Among Democrats, former state Representative Ethan Berkowitz, the 2006 nominee for Lieutenant Governor, has announced, as has 2006 Democratic Party nominee Diane Benson who received over 40% of the vote (93,879) in the last election against Young's 56% (132,743).[26] Bush won 61% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+14). A December 11, 2007 poll has Young trailing Berkowitz 49% to 42%.[27]
Arizona
- Arizona's 1st congressional district: In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election,[28] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote against his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). So far,mental health advocate and community activist Jeffrey Brown, Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt, attorney Howard Shanker, state Representative Ann Kirkpatrick and publisher and former Phoenix TV newscaster Mary Kim Titla are declared candidates. (Simon had announced her intention to run again, but then dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons.) The DCCC has talked with attorney Jim Ledbetter. Other potential Democratic candidates include Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director Steve Owens; 2006 U.S. Senate candidate and wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, former Casa Grande mayor Bob Mitchell, who is the brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell; and Pinal County attorney Carter Olson.[29] On the Republican side of the aisle, public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, has announced her candidacy,[30] as has state Representative Lucy Mason. Other potential Republican candidates include state Corporation Commissioner Kristen Mayes,[31] state Senator Tom O'Halloran, and former Navajo County Supervisor Lewis Tenney.
- Arizona's 3rd congressional district: Outspoken conservative John Shadegg (R) had announced that he would not be a candidate for reelection, however, ten days later, announced that he would seek reelection. The district votes Republican in most elections. Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord[32] outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even has more cash on hand than Shadegg, which could result in an unusually competitive race. Shadegg is being challenged in the primary by former State Representative Steve May. Shadegg's 2006 opponent, consultant Herb Paine, has announced his support for Independent candidate Annie Loyd. Libertarian Mark Yannone is also running.[33]
- Arizona's 5th congressional district: Freshman Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative J.D. Hayworth (R) by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (CPVI=R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race likely, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. He will be seriously opposed in 2008. Former state Representative Laura Knaperek,[34] Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, state Representative Mark Anderson and attorney Jim Ogsbury have announced their candidacies.
- Arizona's 8th congressional district: Gabrielle Giffords (D) defeated conservative Randy Graf (R) by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. Giffords could have a difficult re-election bid now that State Senate President Tim Bee has announced his candidacy and is supported by moderate former Rep. Jim Kolbe.[35] Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Afghanistan veteran Derek Tidball is also running as an Independent.[36]
California
- California's 4th congressional district: On January 10, 2008, nine-term incumbent John Doolittle (R) announced he would retire when his term expires in 2009, to the relief of his fellow Republicans. He has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes. In 2006, Doolittle received only 49% of the vote compared to 46% for his opponent, retired Lt. Colonel and war veteran Charlie Brown (D). Brown is again the Democratic nominee. The FBI raided Doolitte's home in April 2007 in search of incriminating evidence,[37] and speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted. This district leans Republican - George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+11) - and normally could be expected to be a safe seat for the GOP. However, many pundits believed Doolittle faced almost certain defeat if he ran again. The Republican nominee is State Senator Tom McClintock, a conservative who was ran near-successful races for state Controller in 1994 and 2002.
- California's 8th congressional district: This seat, held by house Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is considered relatively safe for the Democrats in any election year. The Republican nominee is Businesswoman and community leader Dana Walsh. However, prominent anti-war activist and "Peace Mom" Cindy Sheehan has declared as a "People before Politics" Independent candidate and will be challenging Pelosi this fall. It is unclear what impact this will have on the race, but many believe this will be an interesting race to watch. Pelosi is very popular and most pundits believe Sheehan has little to no chance of winning.
- California's 11th congressional district: Republicans will look to oppose Jerry McNerney (D), who defeated scandal-plagued incumbent Richard Pombo in 2006 with 53%. The district includes portions of the rural Sacramento Valley, as well as parts of the East Bay. It has a slight Republican lean (CPVI=R+3), but has become more Democratic recently with the arrival of transplants from the Bay Area. Pombo has ruled out a rematch. Former Assemblyman Dean Andal is the Republican nominee.[38] Bush won here with 54% to 46% in 2004.
- California's 46th congressional district: Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has won by wide margins in past elections and represents a fairly safe district. The district covers parts of Orange County and Los Angeles County including the cites of Huntington Beach, Rancho Palos Verdes and Costa Mesa. In 2008 however he faces a potentially formidable opponent in Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook, who is well known throughout the district.
- California's 52nd congressional district: This race is for an open seat, being vacated by former Republican presidential nominee, Representative Duncan Hunter. The Republican nominee is Iraq War veteran C.P.T. Duncan Duane Hunter Jr. The Democratic nominee is Iraq War veteran C.M.D.R. Mike Lumpkin. The Libertarian nominee is 2002 congressional candidate Mike Benoit.
Colorado
- Colorado's 2nd congressional district: With the retirement of Senator Wayne Allard, popular incumbent Mark Udall (D) will run for Senate, which will leave an open seat in this district. However, Democrats hold a strong edge in this district (John Kerry won 59% here, CPVI=D+8), as it is centered around heavily Democratic Boulder. Announced candidates include state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Colorado Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth, and businessman Jared Polis. Among Republicans, former Eagle County Commissioner Tom Stone is a possible candidate. Boulder Mayor Mark Ruzzin may choose to run as the Green Party candidate. Internet businessman Bill Hammons is also running as the Unity Party candidate[39].
- Colorado's 3rd congressional district: Incumbent John Salazar (D) could face a tough reelection race this year. The district leans Republican and George W. Bush received 55% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4). Salazar defeated Republican Scott Tipton in the Democratic landslide in 2006. Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf (R) dropped his bid for the U.S. Senate and has decided to run for the Republican nomination to face Salazar, although he faces an uphill battle.[40]
- Colorado's 4th congressional district: Conservative Marilyn Musgrave (R), known for her staunch opposition to gay marriage, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Angie Paccione (D) and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who got 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area (CPVI=R+9), could make her vulnerable in 2008. Democrats suffered a setback when state Sen. Brandon Schaffer dropped out, citing his party's failure to clear the field. The only declared Democratic candidate is Betsy Markey, businesswoman and regional director for U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar [41]. Also, Eidsness recently switched again (life-long Republican to Reform Party last year) and became a Democrat, which could have fueled a potential rematch with Musgrave in 2008 but he announced he would not run. 2006 nominee Angie Paccione briefly launched a campaign as well, but left the race in September 2007.
- Colorado's 5th congressional district: Freshman Doug Lamborn (R) could face a primary challenge from a more moderate Republican with similarities to the district's previous representative, Joel Hefley. Lamborn narrowly won a nasty multi-candidate primary in 2006 and despite worries of vulnerability (Hefley did not endorse Lamborn citing his "sleazy" campaign), still won by a 59% to 41% margin, less than normal for a Republican in that area, but still comfortable. The district is based in heavily Republican Colorado Springs (CPVI=R+16). Jeff Crank, who (in 2006) very narrowly lost the GOP primary to Lamborn despite Hefley's endorsement, might challenge Lamborn in the 2008 primary for this seat. Recently, Lamborn got bad press when two constituents accused him of making a threatening phone call in response to a critical letter they wrote[42]. In early October 2007, retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, who finished third place in the 2006 Republican primary, announced that he would also run again in 2008[43]. Independent Rich Hand is also running[44].
- Colorado's 6th congressional district: This seat will become open in 2008 as Tom Tancredo (R) is retiring to run for president. The district includes suburbs of Denver. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (CPVI=R+10) (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (he prevailed 53% to 44%). Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R) and businessman Will Armstrong have announced their candidacy. Other Republican candidates include state Sen. Ted Harvey, state Sen. Tom Wiens, and possibly state House Minority Leader David Balmer and former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.
- Colorado's 7th congressional district: Freshmen Ed Perlmutter (D) won 55% of the vote in this suburban Denver district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 52% in 2004 (CPVI=D+2). The district's voter registration is split, with independents constituting a slim plurality of 35% compared to Democrats (34%) and Republicans (31%). In spite of the marginal nature of the district, no Republican has announced yet.
Connecticut
- Connecticut's 2nd congressional district: In one of the closest U.S. House races of 2006, Joe Courtney (D) unseated three-term incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney's chance at reelection increased when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republicans mentioned as possible challengers include Bozrah First Selectman Keith Robbins. Former Groton sub base commander Sean Sullivan has announced his candidacy. However, John Kerry won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+8), so Courtney may be hard to unseat, especially in a presidential year. Former State Department Of Environmental Protection scientist Scott Deshefy is running as a Green Party candidate,[45][46] Todd Vachon as a Socialist Party candidate,[47] and Dan Reale as a Libertarian.[48]
- Connecticut's 4th congressional district: Chris Shays (R) won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004 (CPVI=D+5). In September, 2007, Shays indicated that if he was not given the top Republican seat on the Governmental Oversight Committee, he would retire. The only Republican House member in New England, he will likely be a top target of Democrats if he runs in 2008. Former Goldman Sachs executive and community activist Jim Himes announced his candidacy in April 2007. 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run, although he lost in this district to incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, whom Shays had endorsed. Other possible Democratic candidates include state Senators Bob Duff and Andrew MacDonald. Former professional hockey player Mike Richter, once considered a possible candidate, has announced that he is not interested in running in 2008. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. may also try to reclaim his old seat. Richard Z. Duffee is running again as the Green Party Candidate after withdrawing form the 2006 race.[49]
- Connecticut's 5th congressional district: Arguably the most conservative district in Connecticut - although it went to John Kerry with 50% to 48% in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). Freshman Chris Murphy (D) could be vulnerable, despite having unseated 24-year incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote in 2006. State Senator David Cappiello (R) has announced that he will run,[50] and state Senator Sam Caligiuri may run as well. GOP state chairman Chris Healy dismissed claims that Murphy's large campaign warchest of $420,000 in the first quarter of 2007 may scare off potential challengers, as Cappiello filed as a candidate in April 2007.[51] National Republicans have begun running radio ads in the summer of 2007 claiming Murphy has adopted special interest fundraising politics he had claimed to oppose. In addition, Cappiello has accused Murphy of missing important votes.[52] Canton, Attorney Harold Burbank is running as a Green Party candidate.[53][54]
Florida
- Florida's 5th congressional district: Moderate Ginny Brown-Waite (R) has attracted a serious primary challenger in this sprawling Nature Coast district. As of November, Jim King has already begun a media campaign attacking Brown-Waite from the right and appealing to the conservative Christians who exert a serious influence in the local Republican Party.[55] While King remains a longshot to unseat Brown-Waite, a lengthy and divisive primary campaign of this sort has the potential to drain the incumbent's campaign resources, splinter her support, and cause her to take up more conservative stances that would appeal less to moderate voters in the general election. Of the three Democrats who have filed to challenge Brown-Waite in November, health care worker and local activist John Russell, who received 40% against Brown-Waite in the 2006 election, will likely be the nominee, hoping to capitalize on Brown-Waite's difficult primary, her modest fundraising, and recent demographic changes in this high-growth area. (CPVI=R+5)
- Florida's 8th congressional district: In 2006, incumbent Ric Keller (R), author of the "Cheeseburger Bill", was reelected by less than expected. Orlando businessman Charlie Stuart, who polled 46%, is running again in 2008. After the November 2006 election, Keller announced that he would break his 2000 pledge to serve only four terms. Because of this, conservative radio host Todd Long is challenging Keller in the Republican primary, as is retired Marine Corps officer Bob Hering and Republican candidate Greg Lewis. Former state prosecutor Mike Smith (D) is also challenging Keller[56]. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 55% of the vote (CPVI=R+3).
- Florida's 13th congressional district: Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter. Regardless, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008, though Buchanan is far ahead of Jennings in fundraising and is favored to win by political pundits. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.[57] To further complicate matters for Jennings, former Democratic Congressional candidate Jan Schneider has filed to run as an Independent.[58] George W. Bush won 56% of the district's vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
- Florida's 15th congressional district: Seven-term incumbent Dave Weldon had easily won re-election contests for a decade. Weldon is retiring in 2008. This will likely be a competitive race. The only announced Democratic candidate is physician Steve Blythe. Among Republicans, state Sen. Bill Posey has announced his candidacy and has been endorsed by Weldon and the Florida Republican Party. Libertarian Jeffrey Bouffard a computer engineer & army veteran has also filed to run.[59] Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
- Florida's 16th congressional district: This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a 10-point margin in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). Negron has announced that he will not run again. State Rep. Gayle Harrell (R) has announced her candidacy but faces conservative primary opposition from Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and attorney Tom Rooney. Mahoney has raised about $400,000 for his re-election in the first quarter of 2007.
- Florida's 18th congressional district: Incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen could face a difficult race as her district has been trending Democratic. The district contains many Miami suburbs and the entire Florida Keys. Founder and CEO of LanguageSpeak and Chair of the Women's Enterprise National Council's Leadership Forum Annette Taddeo has announced she will run as a Democrat and has been raising significant sums of money.
- Florida's 21st congressional district: Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) has faced nothing more than token opposition since his first election. But this year, he could face a very tough race. Former Hialeah Mayor Raul L. Martinez (D) is running and he is very well-known in the area and could be a formidable challenger.[60] Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
- Florida's 22nd congressional district: First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). Republicans suffered a setback when Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams announced he would not run. Former army officer and Iraq War veteran Allen West and former navy pilot Mark Flagg both have announced they are running. The neurosurgeon Robert Brodner and 2006 Connecticut U.S. senatorial candidate Alan Schlesinger are also potential candidates. Mike Prysner an Iraq War veteran, peace activist, and college student is running on the Party for Socialism and Liberation ticket.[61]
- Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was reelected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats have recruited former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008 [62]. 2006 challenger Clint Curtis will run again. George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+3).
- Florida's 25th congressional district: Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart (R) faces a challenge from the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party chairman, Joe Garcia, a former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF).[63]
Georgia
- Georgia's 8th congressional district: Jim Marshall (D) survived a challenge from former Republican congressman Mac Collins in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid in 2008, which might prompt him to challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead. Marshall faces a primary challenge from music teacher Robert Nowak. On the Republican side, retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard has announced that he would run[64], and his background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall's own military background and well-established credibility on military issues may cancel this out somewhat. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+8). Other potential Republican candidates are state Senator Ross Tolleson, state Senator Cecil Staton and former congressman Mac Collins.
- Georgia's 10th congressional district: In a 2007 special election, physician Paul Broun, a Republican with libertarian views, won a stunning upset in a non-partisan runoff. Now Broun will face a July 17 Republican primary field and has drawn strong opposition. State Representative Barry Fleming has announced his candidacy and has raised more money than the incumbent. Democrat and Iraq War veteran Bobby Saxon is challenging Broun. An independent candidate, James P. Mason, needs over 17,000 petitions to qualify.
- Georgia's 12th congressional district: John Barrow (D) may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Rep. Max Burns (R) in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote, but in 2007 Burns accepted a job with North Georgia College and State University, making a second rematch unlikely. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given John Kerry 51% in 2004 (CPVI=D+2). Barrow is facing a primary challenge from State Senator Regina Thomas. Mechanical engineer and former presidential candidate Ray McKinney and radio announcer and former congressional aide John Stone have announced their candidacies on the Republican side.
- Georgia's 13th congressional district: Incumbent David Scott (D) represents a fairly safe district which contains suburbs of Atlanta. He is facing a potentially difficult primary challenge from State Senator Donzella James who ran against him in 2006 in the primary and got 32% of the vote up from 2002 when it was an open seat and she got only 11%. Scott is currently under investigation for tax liens and for family members of his campaign staff receiving questionably high payments.
Idaho
- Idaho's 1st congressional district: Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004 (CPVI=R+19). Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the GOP freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Sali defeated Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury in the March 27 primary.[65]. Walt Minnick, an army veteran, Boise businessman, and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996 is the Democratic nominee. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.
Illinois
- Illinois's 6th congressional district: Freshman Peter Roskam (R) won his first term in Congress by a close 51% to 49% margin. This west suburban district was once solidly Republican, but has become more Democratic in recent years. It narrowly went to George W. Bush with 53% to 47% in 2004 (CPVI=R+3). Roskam will face Democrat Jill Morgenthaler, a retired U.S. Army Reserve Colonel and Iraq War veteran.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district: Melissa Bean (D) gained national attention by toppling longtime incumbent Phil Crane in 2004. However, the 8th is considered the most Republican of the Chicago suburban districts (and by some accounts, all of Illinois), and Bean has had a perennial spot on Republican target lists. Bean will face at least two challengers, Republican businessman, and former professional hockey player Steve Greenberg and Green Party candidate Iain Abernathy in the general election.[66]
- Illinois's 10th congressional district: Mark Kirk (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47%. The district, the state's wealthiest, went for John Kerry with 54% in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk will again face his 2006 opponent, Dan Seals, who won the Democratic primary with 81% against a credible opponent. David Kalbfleisch the founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party has announced that he will run for the seat.[67] Kalbfleisch is a navy veteran and member of Iraq Veterans Against the War.[68][69]
- Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller will be retiring at the end of his seventh term.[70] Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry (CPVI=R+1). The Republican nominee was New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, but he announced in February that he was dropping out of the race.[71] Local businessman Martin Ozinga was chosen to replace Baldermann as the Republican candidate. [72] State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson is the Democratic nominee. Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and chair of the IBHE-SAC,[73] is running as a Green Party candidate.